Strategy and odds
Mia is half luck and half nerve. The numbers won't tell you who's lying, but they do tell you how likely it is that they're telling the truth.
The odds of every score
Two dice give 36 combinations. The table shows how often each score comes up, how often you roll at least that score, and how often you beat it, which is your chance of topping it honestly if you believe and roll.
| Score | Comes up | At least this | You beat it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 2 in 36 | 6% | 0% |
| 66 | 1 in 36 | 8% | 6% |
| 55 | 1 in 36 | 11% | 8% |
| 44 | 1 in 36 | 14% | 11% |
| 33 | 1 in 36 | 17% | 14% |
| 22 | 1 in 36 | 19% | 17% |
| 11 | 1 in 36 | 22% | 19% |
| 65 | 2 in 36 | 28% | 22% |
| 64 | 2 in 36 | 33% | 28% |
| 63 | 2 in 36 | 39% | 33% |
| 62 | 2 in 36 | 44% | 39% |
| 61 | 2 in 36 | 50% | 44% |
| 54 | 2 in 36 | 56% | 50% |
| 53 | 2 in 36 | 61% | 56% |
| 52 | 2 in 36 | 67% | 61% |
| 51 | 2 in 36 | 72% | 67% |
| 43 | 2 in 36 | 78% | 72% |
| 42 | 2 in 36 | 83% | 78% |
| 41 | 2 in 36 | 89% | 83% |
| 32 | 2 in 36 | 94% | 89% |
| 31 | 2 in 36 | 100% | 94% |
Numbers worth remembering
- Half the time you roll at least 61. From 54 down, the called score is really there more than half the time.
- Mia comes up once in 18 rolls, about 6%. All doubles together come up once in 6.
- After a 65 you beat it honestly only 22% of the time: believing it almost always means bluffing yourself.
- After double 3 that drops to 14%.
When to lift
The right question isn't just "are they lying?" but also "if I believe it, what will I call?". The higher the score you receive, the harder it is to beat with a real roll, and the more likely you'll have to bluff under pressure. That's why from doubles upwards it often pays to lift, unless the player before you is known for telling the truth.
A low score, on the other hand, is easy to beat: lifting it is risky, because if it's true you lose.
How to bluff better
- The least suspicious bluff is the score just above the one you received: it sounds natural and leaves little room for the next player.
- Don't inflate too much: a 65 called after a 42 draws attention.
- When you really have a high score, calling it is safe, and it puts the next player in trouble: now they're the one who has to bluff.
- Mix it up: players who always bluff get caught, players who never bluff become predictable.
Many players build a character: the honest one, the habitual liar, the lucky roller. The character is part of the game, and breaking it at the right moment is the strongest move you have.